A report just released suggests that laptops sales will overtake that of desktop by late 2008/early 2009. So how does this affect you and me? That depends on where you sit. Home users have different needs to a mobile worker. Have a look at your PC. Do you have a printer attached? Maybe you've got a nice 23" flatscreen monitor or you're using your desktop as a TV/Family entertainment system. Now, do you really want to replace this with a laptop?
Probably not.
Now take another angle. Your PC is crammed into a space under your stairs. There's a real danger of knocking yourself unconscious when you try to sit up straight on the chair you've taken from the dining room - yeah, I've done this as well. And your printer - ah, you haven't got one, there's not enough room beside the cats bed! Maybe it is time to buy a notebook - you don't use the computer for anything but browsing. The added bonus - no more neck ache under the stairs and the cat no longer has a rattling fan blowing dust in its face.
Two very different views of the desktop in the home. But why haven't users been buying notebooks? The price. Go back four years or so and it was a different world. A modest laptop would cost you some big money. Times have changed. Low cost manufacturing and the announcement of Intels Atom processor have changed the markets. You've never had it so good. Here in the UK you can now pick up a cheap notebook for about £200 - very cheap. Add in innovations such as the Asus EEE PC and it's small form and I predict that manufacturers will be seeing a real boom in sales over the next few years.
The world of business
Business users have different needs. Not long ago, companies would provide a desktop for workers. Workforce mobility has changed the way we work. Working from home is becoming more common. Many workers now visit customer sites. Take sales people or engineers as an example. They can't lug their desktop with them. Companies recognise this and are putting in the work to ensure that their personnel have not only a machine on which to store information but a means to deliver that back to the business: SaaS (Software as a Service). When you equip a mobile worker with a notebook and internet access (GPRS card, dongle etc) there is no need for a desktop. Sure, having a small number of high powered machines for specialist tasks is always necessary but for general work? No.
So what will happen to the desktop? Well, it won't wither and die no matter what analysts think. Projected sales show that there is still growth in the market, alebit small - single digits. But many users are still attached to their PCs, it's like having an extra member of the family. The rise of Mobile Internet Devices and ULCPCs will have an impact - many vendors are counting on this sector growing rapidly.
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